With an
unusually strong storm system moving into the plains, it looked like parts of
the region would see a significant severe weather outbreak for today and
especially the 22nd. Initially, the area in question seemed to be Missouri,
Illinois and Arkansas, to far away for us to chase. Around Oklahoma, the dryline
was forecast to push well into eastern portions of the state. Any storms that
formed there would be severe, but would be moving at light speed into Arkansas,
so, long story short, I didn't see any chance for a chase for today.
I finished work, checked data and went to bed around 7:45am, with visions of a leisurely day off dancing in my head. However, around 11:30am, Ch9 paged with a severe weather outlook...they expected severe storms east of a line from Ponca City, to Stillwater, to Shawnee, further west than I had originally thought. It was still east of the metro so I didn't think we would be called out. In fact, I just went back to sleep. Within 30 minutes, my chase partner, Tom, called and he was all giddy with excitement. He really felt things were going to happen. He filled me in on the details, so I got up to check data again and was very surprised to see the dryline was still to our west and instability was flooding back into the region. By golly, things had changed dramatically! After perusing all the severe weather parameters, I felt the Ardmore area was prime for storm development. Parts of central Kansas also looked good, under the upper low, but that was just a little out of range for us and with a severe threat in Oklahoma, we knew we would likely be on the clock today.
After one more update to confirm instability was increasing, I gathered my gear and started towards Tom's house. Just as I walked out the door, a tornado watch was issued for the eastern 2/3 of the state. Oh boy!
There was bad news...we were now on the clock, so Ch9 was deciding where we would go. They wanted us to hang around the eastern side of the metro out towards Shawnee. I would have rather been going to Ardmore, but still thought we would be in decent shape. I was also getting concerned there may be to much wind shear today...winds at all levels were very strong and I was afraid the updrafts would be sheared apart, unless things became extremely unstable.
We stopped to gas up and grab a sandwich from Subway, then headed east, stopping at the I-40 /Hwy 102 intersection. To the west, there was a nice pocket of cumulus, with some evidence of vertical growth. Although I was worried about the excess shear, I was still optimistic things would go...it was a very powerful system. I decided to get out and enjoy the 40+mph winds, the humid air, the clouds streaming north, the early fall colors and I felt so....so....queasy. That sandwich wasn't sitting to well. Uh oh.
After awhile, some small towers began to develop within the cumulus cluster we had been watching to the west. My fears were being confirmed however. The towers were falling over, unable to withstand the strong winds aloft. We decided to head further east to be in better position should something go up. Tom and I headed east on I-40, stopping again on the west side of Shawnee.
Things didn't change much over the next hour or two. The same cloud cluster persisted to our west, with occasional attempts at towers, most of which were quickly sheared apart. Other towers tried to go up to the southwest, but the same thing happened to them. To our southeast, another area of towers formed along the retreating cloud deck. These looked much better and we were tempted to head that way, but if storms did form, they would be moving through jungle territory, into the hills (and hillbillies) and at supersonic speeds, so we held fast. And waited. And waited some more. And even a little more. And then we had enough. My fears were confirmed, the shear was just to much. As sunset approached, most of the towers were gone, dusty air was overspreading us as the dryline moved in and my tummy was still angry about that sammich. So we gave up and headed home. Of course, as we did, the towers to the southeasr suddenly exploded into severe storms. It was to late and getting dark, so we would have to enjoy that show from afar. One cell did go nuts down there, producing several tornadoes after dark. Oh, and where did it form? 20 miles east of ARDMORE. Sigh. Oh well, a bad day chasing is still better than a good day at work.
The following day, there was a major severe weather outbreak from eastern Oklahoma, into Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois, with over 40 tornadoes reported, 4"+ hail, flooding rains. One tornado in Illinois was around 1 mile wide!